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HF Sinclair Corporation's (NYSE:DINO) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

·4 min read

Most readers would already be aware that HF Sinclair's (NYSE:DINO) stock increased significantly by 16% over the past month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Specifically, we decided to study HF Sinclair's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for HF Sinclair is:

17% = US$1.7b ÷ US$9.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.17 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of HF Sinclair's Earnings Growth And 17% ROE

To begin with, HF Sinclair seems to have a respectable ROE. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 26%, we aren't very excited. Further research shows that HF Sinclair's net income has shrunk at a rate of 14% over the last five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a high ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. Therefore, the shrinking earnings could be the result of other factors. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

As a next step, we compared HF Sinclair's performance with the industry and found thatHF Sinclair's performance is depressing even when compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 4.1% in the same period, which is a slower than the company.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for DINO? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is HF Sinclair Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

HF Sinclair's low three-year median payout ratio of 10% (implying that it retains the remaining 90% of its profits) comes as a surprise when you pair it with the shrinking earnings. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For instance, the business has faced some headwinds.

Moreover, HF Sinclair has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 34% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 8.9% over the same period.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that HF Sinclair certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a respectable rate of return and is reinvesting a huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. Additionally, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that analysts expect the company's earnings to continue to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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