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The holiday shopping season is expected to be a record-setter for online retail

Julia La Roche

It’s November, and that means the holiday shopping season has officially begun, and this year is expected to be a record-setter.

According to a research report from Adobe Analytics, online shopping will hit new highs in November and December. Adobe is forecasting that U.S. shoppers will spend $124.1 billion online during those two months, up from $108.2 billion, or an increase of about 14.8% year-over-year. That works out to be more than $1 out of every $6 spent during the holidays overall.

A huge portion of that online shopping, approximately 19%, will take place during the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with estimates of $23.4 billion in holiday revenue in that timeframe.

Amazon Prime employees push carts with bags loaded with goods for delivery  (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

Thanksgiving Day will see $3.3 billion in online spending, or a 16.5% year-over-year leap, while Black Friday will likely see $5.9 billion in online revenues or a 17.2% jump. Most shoppers, about 72%, said they would stay home on Thanksgiving and shop online.

Meanwhile, Cyber Monday is expected to pull in $7.8 billion, or a 17.6% increase over last year’s event. To put it in perspective, just three hours equates to as much revenue brought in during a typical day. During Cyber Monday 2017, shoppers, collectively, spent 5.2 billion minutes, or 10,000 years, shopping.

Smartphone shoppers will be driving much of the season’s shopping, with 48.3% of shopping retail visits happening via the mobile device and driving 27.2% of the revenue, an increase of 11.6% year-over-year. With smartphones, though, retailers are losing about $9 billion in abandoned shopping carts because orders are 20% less likely to be completed on a mobile device compared to a desktop.

Only 1% of products will drive about 70% of online sales during the holidays, compared to about 54% of sales on average. Some of the hot sellers will be 4K televisions and video game consoles, with the retro versions expected to outperform. Favorite new toys this season include Pomsies and Fortnite Monopoly and veteran best-sellers Hatchimals and Lego.

While online will likely see a massive jump, physical retail will play a role. Those retailers with a physical presence are more likely to drive online sales for their brands, with an estimated 28% higher conversion rate. According to a survey of more than 1,000 shoppers, 47% said they would visit a store before buying a product online, while 58% of millennials surveyed said they’d do this.

One of the popular trends in retail is the buy online, pick up in-store approach. Adobe found that this has seen 119% growth since the beginning of this year for retail generally, while the most prominent retailers have seen 250% growth.

Julia La Roche is a finance reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter. Send tips to laroche@oath.com.