As you might know, HOOKIPA Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOK) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. It wasn't the greatest result, with ongoing losses and revenues of US$3.7m falling short of analyst predictions. The losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share statutory loss of US$0.43 being moderately smaller than the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering HOOKIPA Pharma are now predicting revenues of US$16.3m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 22% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.88. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.7m and losses of US$2.49 per share in 2020. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about HOOKIPA Pharma's future following the latest consensus numbers, with a the loss per share forecasts in particular.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$17.75, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on HOOKIPA Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that HOOKIPA Pharma's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 22%, compared to a historical growth rate of 35% over the past year. Compare this to the 501 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 24% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while HOOKIPA Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that HOOKIPA Pharma will grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for HOOKIPA Pharma going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with HOOKIPA Pharma (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
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