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What Is Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Company's (NASDAQ:HMHC) Share Price Doing?

Simply Wall St

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Company (NASDAQ:HMHC), which is in the consumer services business, and is based in United States, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Houghton Mifflin Harcourt’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Is Houghton Mifflin Harcourt still cheap?

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt appears to be overvalued by 22.15% at the moment, based on my discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at US$5.74 on the market compared to my intrinsic value of $4.7. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now. In addition to this, it seems like Houghton Mifflin Harcourt’s share price is quite stable, which could mean two things: firstly, it may take the share price a while to fall back down to an attractive buying range, and secondly, there may be less chances to buy low in the future once it reaches that value. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta.

What kind of growth will Houghton Mifflin Harcourt generate?

NasdaqGS:HMHC Past and Future Earnings, August 5th 2019

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt’s earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 64%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in HMHC’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe HMHC should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on HMHC for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for HMHC, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. You can find everything you need to know about Houghton Mifflin Harcourt in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.