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Humana (HUM) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Humana Inc.’s HUM first-quarter 2021 results are scheduled to be reported on Apr 28, 2021 before market opens.

Factors to Impact Q1 Results

The to-be-reported quarter’s earnings results are likely to reflect better revenues. Notably, the consensus mark for revenues of $20.7 billion hints at a 9.5% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.

The company’s top line is likely to have witnessed an upside in the first quarter owing to higher premiums and its strong Medicaid and Medicare lines of businesses. The consensus mark for the company's total premiums suggests a hike of 20.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The company is expected to have witnessed a rise in its pharmacy business, mainly owing to solid Medicare advantage membership growth and a continued increased Mail-Order Penetration.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $7.21 per share, indicating an upside of 33.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

A few contract wins are likely to have contributed to the company’s Medicaid growth.

The company is expected to have witnessed an uptick in its telehealth services owing to current demand for the same.

However, its specialty membership might have partially taken a hit from membership migration. The consensus mark for the same implies a 3% decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Additionally, total investment income for the to-be-reported quarter is expected to have noticed a downtrend due to low investment yield.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter benefit ratio stands at 86%, suggesting a rise from the year-ago period's reported level of 85%. The company is also likely to have witnessed high marketing costs and COVID-related expenses in the first quarter.

What the Quantitative Model States

Our proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for Humana this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Humana has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of $7.21. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Humana Inc. price-eps-surprise | Humana Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Humana currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Highlights of Q4 Earnings and Surprise History

Humana reported fourth-quarter 2020 operating loss per share of $2.30, which was lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.35. This was on account of steep COVID-related treatment and testing costs, high marketing expenses related to the Medicare Advantage Annual Election Period (AEP) as well as continuous relief efforts and strategic measures in its integrated care delivery models.

The company boasts a stellar earnings record with its bottom line having delivered a positive surprise in all the trailing four quarters, the average being 10.72%.

Other Medical Sector Releases

Of the medical sector players that have reported first-quarter results so far, the bottom-line results of UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Anthem Inc. ANTM and Tenet Healthcare Corp. THC beat their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate.

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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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