The investors in Hypoport AG's (ETR:HYQ) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 23% to €261 in the week following its annual results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €337m and statutory earnings per share of €3.90 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Hypoport is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hypoport's six analysts is for revenues of €409.7m in 2020, which would reflect a major 21% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 22% to €4.75. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €409.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.11 in 2020. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at €304, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hypoport at €375 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €175. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Hypoport's historical trends, as next year's 21% revenue growth is roughly in line with 22% annual revenue growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 1.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that Hypoport is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hypoport. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €304, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hypoport. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Hypoport analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Hypoport that you need to be mindful of.
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