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Imagine Holding Brink's (NYSE:BCO) Shares While The Price Zoomed 314% Higher

Simply Wall St

We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. To wit, the The Brink's Company (NYSE:BCO) share price has soared 314% over five years. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. We note the stock price is up 1.2% in the last seven days.

See our latest analysis for Brink's

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years of share price growth, Brink's moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Brink's share price is up 120% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 53% each year. This EPS growth is higher than the 30% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days. Having said that, the market is still optimistic, given the P/E ratio of 65.32.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:BCO Past and Future Earnings, October 28th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Brink's's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Brink's the TSR over the last 5 years was 337%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Brink's has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 28% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 34% a year, is even better. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.