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Imagine Owning Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior (NYSE:BLX) And Wondering If The 29% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S.A (NYSE:BLX) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 29% over a half decade. It's up 4.2% in the last seven days.

View our latest analysis for Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 24% each year. The share price decline of 6.5% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:BLX Past and Future Earnings, July 22nd 2019

Dive deeper into Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, it has a TSR of -5.1% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 5.6% in the last year, Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior shareholders lost 4.7% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.0% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Importantly, we haven't analysed Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

But note: Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.