U.S. Markets closed
  • S&P Futures

    4,704.00
    +2.50 (+0.05%)
     
  • Dow Futures

    35,830.00
    +19.00 (+0.05%)
     
  • Nasdaq Futures

    16,494.75
    +13.50 (+0.08%)
     
  • Russell 2000 Futures

    2,365.40
    +1.20 (+0.05%)
     
  • Gold

    1,861.20
    -0.20 (-0.01%)
     
  • Silver

    24.88
    -0.02 (-0.08%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1369
    -0.0006 (-0.0568%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.5890
    -0.0150 (-0.94%)
     
  • Vix

    17.59
    +0.48 (+2.81%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3497
    -0.0003 (-0.0216%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    114.3040
    +0.0520 (+0.0455%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    57,157.69
    -201.49 (-0.35%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,402.14
    -65.80 (-4.48%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,255.96
    -35.24 (-0.48%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    29,683.09
    +84.43 (+0.29%)
     

Imagine Owning CaixaBank (BME:CABK) And Wondering If The 44% Share Price Slide Is Justified

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·4 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in CaixaBank, S.A. (BME:CABK), since the last five years saw the share price fall 44%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 25% over the last twelve months. On top of that, the share price is down 14% in the last week. But this could be related to the soft market, which is down about 11% in the same period.

View our latest analysis for CaixaBank

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, CaixaBank actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 19% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

The most recent dividend was actually lower than it was in the past, so that may have sent the share price lower.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

BME:CABK Income Statement, March 2nd 2020
BME:CABK Income Statement, March 2nd 2020

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think CaixaBank will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for CaixaBank the TSR over the last 5 years was -34%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that CaixaBank shareholders are down 23% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.9%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8.0% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CaixaBank better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for CaixaBank that you should be aware of before investing here.

CaixaBank is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on ES exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.