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Imagine Owning County Bancorp (NASDAQ:ICBK) And Wondering If The 30% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. That downside risk was realized by County Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICBK) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 30%. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 1.0%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 15% in three years. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 2.0%.

See our latest analysis for County Bancorp

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Unhappily, County Bancorp had to report a 0.08% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 30% share price fall. This suggests the EPS fall has made some shareholders are more nervous about the business. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 8.79.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NasdaqGM:ICBK Past and Future Earnings, August 15th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of County Bancorp's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between County Bancorp's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for County Bancorp shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 29%, over the last year, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

County Bancorp shareholders are down 29% for the year (even including dividends), but the broader market is up 1.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Shareholders have lost 4.4% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. Although Warren Buffett famously said he likes to 'buy when there is blood on the streets', he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.