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Imagine Owning Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) And Wondering If The 24% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

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Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 24% over a half decade. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 1.2%.

Check out our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years over which the share price declined, Exxon Mobil's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 10.0% each year. The share price decline of 5.3% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:XOM Past and Future Earnings, May 13th 2019

Dive deeper into Exxon Mobil's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Exxon Mobil's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Exxon Mobil's TSR for the last 5 years was -8.7%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 6.3% in the last year, Exxon Mobil shareholders lost 1.7% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 1.8% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course Exxon Mobil may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.