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Imagine Owning Freehill Mining (ASX:FHS) And Trying To Stomach The 74% Share Price Drop

Simply Wall St

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As every investor would know, you don't hit a homerun every time you swing. But serious investors should think long and hard about avoiding extreme losses. It must have been painful to be a Freehill Mining Limited (ASX:FHS) shareholder over the last year, since the stock price plummeted 74% in that time. That'd be a striking reminder about the importance of diversification. Freehill Mining may have better days ahead, of course; we've only looked at a one year period. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 38% in the last three months.

View our latest analysis for Freehill Mining

Freehill Mining didn't have any revenue in the last year, so it's fair to say it doesn't yet have a proven product (or at least not one people are paying for). We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Freehill Mining will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Freehill Mining has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

Our data indicates that Freehill Mining had AU$4,392,213 more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in December 2018. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But with the share price diving 74% in the last year, it's probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed. You can see in the image below, how Freehill Mining's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:FHS Historical Debt, June 13th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. You can click here to see if there are insiders selling.

A Different Perspective

While Freehill Mining shareholders are down 73% for the year, the market itself is up 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 38%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.