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Imagine Owning G1 Therapeutics (NASDAQ:GTHX) And Wondering If The 48% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

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Over the last month the G1 Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:GTHX) has been much stronger than before, rebounding by 39%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been less than pleasing. In fact the stock is down 48% in the last year, well below the market return.

Check out our latest analysis for G1 Therapeutics

G1 Therapeutics didn't have any revenue in the last year, so it's fair to say it doesn't yet have a proven product (or at least not one people are paying for). We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, they may be hoping that G1 Therapeutics comes up with a great new treatment, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized).

G1 Therapeutics has plenty of cash in the bank, with net cash sitting at US$335m, when it last reported (March 2019). This gives management the flexibility to drive business growth, without worrying too much about cash reserves. But since the share price has dropped 48% in the last year, it seems like the market might have been over-excited previously. You can see in the image below, how G1 Therapeutics's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

NasdaqGS:GTHX Historical Debt, May 12th 2019

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 6.3% in the last year, G1 Therapeutics shareholders might be miffed that they lost 48%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. It's great to see a nice little 18% rebound in the last three months. This could just be a bounce because the selling was too aggressive, but fingers crossed it's the start of a new trend. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

G1 Therapeutics is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.