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Imagine Owning Hilltop Holdings (NYSE:HTH) And Wondering If The 16% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last month. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. After all, the share price is down 16% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.

Check out our latest analysis for Hilltop Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Hilltop Holdings's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 2.2% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 3.5% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:HTH Past and Future Earnings, April 17th 2019

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Hilltop Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Hilltop Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was -14%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Hilltop Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 14% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 8.2%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3.0% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you would like to research Hilltop Holdings in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

But note: Hilltop Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.