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Imagine Owning iCollege (ASX:ICT) And Wondering If The 21% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Unfortunately the iCollege Limited (ASX:ICT) share price slid 21% over twelve months. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 12%. iCollege hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 10.0%.

Check out our latest analysis for iCollege

Because iCollege is loss-making, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

iCollege grew its revenue by 201% over the last year. That's a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. The share price drop of 21% over twelve months would be considered disappointing by many, so you might argue the company is getting little credit for its impressive revenue growth. Prima facie, revenue growth like that should be a good thing, so it's worth checking whether losses have stabilized. Our brains have evolved to think in linear fashion, so there's value in learning to recognize exponential growth. We are, in some ways, simply the wisest of the monkeys.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ASX:ICT Income Statement, September 27th 2019

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of iCollege's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

While iCollege shareholders are down 21% for the year, the market itself is up 12%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. With the stock down 1.6% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Basically, most investors should be wary of buying into a poor-performing stock, unless the business itself has clearly improved. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.