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Imagine Owning Replimune Group (NASDAQ:REPL) And Wondering If The 17% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

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It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the Replimune Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:REPL) share price is down 17% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 6.2%. Replimune Group hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

See our latest analysis for Replimune Group

Replimune Group didn't have any revenue in the last year, so it's fair to say it doesn't yet have a proven product (or at least not one people are paying for). You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, they may be hoping that Replimune Group comes up with a great new product, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing.

Replimune Group has plenty of cash in the bank, with cash in excess of all liabilities sitting at US$118m, when it last reported (March 2019). That allows management to focus on growing the business, and not worry too much about raising capital. But since the share price has dropped 17% in the last year, it seems like the market might have been over-excited previously. The image below shows how Replimune Group's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Replimune Group's cash levels have changed over time.

NasdaqGS:REPL Historical Debt, July 19th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 6.2% in the last year, Replimune Group shareholders might be miffed that they lost 17%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. With the stock down 13% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

Replimune Group is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.