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Imagine Owning Sonoro Energy (CVE:SNV) And Trying To Stomach The 91% Share Price Drop

Simply Wall St

It is doubtless a positive to see that the Sonoro Energy Ltd. (CVE:SNV) share price has gained some 38% in the last three months. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 91% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained.

While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

See our latest analysis for Sonoro Energy

Sonoro Energy didn't have any revenue in the last year, so it's fair to say it doesn't yet have a proven product (or at least not one people are paying for). We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, they may be hoping that Sonoro Energy finds fossil fuels with an exploration program, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Sonoro Energy investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.

Sonoro Energy had liabilities exceeding cash by CA$1,748,247 when it last reported in March 2019, according to our data. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. But with the share price diving 38% per year, over 5 years, it's probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Sonoro Energy's cash levels have changed over time. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Sonoro Energy's cash levels have changed over time.

TSXV:SNV Historical Debt, July 30th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Sonoro Energy shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 57% over one year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 38% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.