While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Yamana Gold Inc. (TSE:YRI) share price up 10% in a single quarter. But that can’t change the reality that over the longer term (five years), the returns have been really quite dismal. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 65% after a long stretch. So we’re not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. But it could be that the fall was overdone.
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Yamana Gold isn’t a profitable company, so it is unlikely we’ll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
Over five years, Yamana Gold grew its revenue at 0.5% per year. That’s far from impressive given all the money it is losing. This lacklustre growth has no doubt fueled the loss of 19% per year, in that time. We’d want to see proof that future revenue growth is likely to be significantly stronger before getting too interested in Yamana Gold. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).
Depicted in the graphic below, you’ll see revenue and earnings over time. If you want more detail, you can click on the chart itself.
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Yamana Gold will earn in the future (free profit forecasts)
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Yamana Gold the TSR over the last 5 years was -62%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Yamana Gold had a tough year, with a total loss of 3.6% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 6.2%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn’t as bad as the 18% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
Yamana Gold is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.