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Can You Imagine How Silvercorp Metals's (TSE:SVM) Shareholders Feel About The 49% Share Price Increase?

Simply Wall St

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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the Silvercorp Metals share price has climbed 49% in five years, easily topping the market return of 0.8% (ignoring dividends).

See our latest analysis for Silvercorp Metals

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years of share price growth, Silvercorp Metals moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Silvercorp Metals share price is down 7.2% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 85% each year. It would appear there's a real mismatch between the increasing EPS and the share price, which has declined -2.4% a year for three years.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

TSX:SVM Past and Future Earnings, July 2nd 2019

It is of course excellent to see how Silvercorp Metals has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Silvercorp Metals's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Silvercorp Metals's TSR for the last 5 years was 55%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Silvercorp Metals had a tough year, with a total loss of 5.5% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 1.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9.1%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.