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Imbruvica to Offset Humira Woes in AbbVie (ABBV) Q3 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

AbbVie Inc’s ABBV flagship product, Humira, has witnessed declining sales in the past couple of quarters given the launch of biosimilars in international markets, especially Europe. The drug is approved for several inflammatory indications and generates more than half of the company’s revenues. Loss of exclusivity in Europe has led to the launch of multiple biosimilar drugs by other pharma companies since October last year. These launches significantly dented international sales in the first half of 2019 and the trend is likely to have continued in the third quarter. However, the drug is well protected from competition in the United States till mid-2023 by patents.

The company expects U.S. Humira sales to increase 8% in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The company estimates international sales to be $1 billion. The drug had brought in sales of $1.58 billion in the year-ago quarter from international markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Humira sales is pegged at $4.9 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. sales is pegged at $3.9 billion and for international sales stand at $1.02 billion.

In April, the company’s inflammation portfolio was strengthened with the approval of Skyrizi for treating moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the United States and Europe. Sales of the drug were better than management’s expectations in the second quarter. Strong launch uptake is expected to have continued in the third quarter as well.

Its key oncology medicine, Imbruvica has shown impressive adoption in the approved indications, especially front-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia (“CLL”). The drug is approved for use as a monotherapy or in combination for front-line CLL. The drug is the only preferred regimen under the NCCN guidelines for this indication. The drug is marketed in partnership with J&J JNJ, globally. J&J on its third-quarter earnings call reported impressive sales of the drug.

AbbVie expects Imbruvica sales to be approximately $1.2 billion in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug is also pegged at $1.2 billion.

Sales of another leukemia drug, Venclexta, have shown strong trend in the first half of 2019 with sales more than doubling year over year on the back of label expansion in additional indications. In May, the drug was approved in combination with Roche’s RHHBY Gazyva as first-line treatment for CLL patients, which might have brought additional sales in third-quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug is pegged at $208 million

Other drugs, namely Duodopa and Creon, are also likely to have continued their strong performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for Duodopa and Creon sales is pegged at $117 million and $265 million.

AbbVie’s new HCV drug, sales of Mavyret were down in the first half of 2019 due to decline in international market share and pricing. Moreover, sales in the U.S. markets also suffered in the second quarter. The trend is likely to have continued in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the HCV segment, mainly comprising of Mavyret, stands at $762 million. (Read more: What's in the Cards for AbbVie This Earnings Season?)

AbbVie’s stock has declined 17% this year so far, against the increase of 0.9% recorded by the industry.

AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus

AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus

AbbVie Inc. price-consensus-chart | AbbVie Inc. Quote

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