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Immatics N.V. (NASDAQ:IMTX) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at €7.7m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of €0.35 some 23% larger than what the analysts had predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Immatics from four analysts is for revenues of €33.2m in 2021 which, if met, would be a modest 5.2% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 70% to €1.30. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of €32.5m and €1.27 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to its losses per share forecasts.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$23.60, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Immatics at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Immatics shareholders.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Immatics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2021 being well below the historical 45% growth over the last year. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 14% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Immatics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates sales are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €23.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Immatics going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Immatics .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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