Stocks were put to the test again Monday, following a roller coaster ride last week. The Dow (^DJI) fell 391 points during Monday’s session, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell to 1.63%, its lowest level since 2016.
On Tuesday, investors will get a pulse on the state of the U.S. economy when key inflation data is released ahead of the opening bell. The Labor Department will report July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), and economists polled by Bloomberg are expecting core CPI to have risen 0.2% from June and 2.1% from the same period last year.
The trade war and latest round of tariffs is unlikely to have a big impact on inflation, according to Wells Fargo. “The inflation backdrop remains tame, as we look ahead to the second half of the year. The proposed 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports (largely consumer goods) has sparked some concerns about inflation. However, we estimate the latest round of tariffs would add a little over 0.1 percentage points to the year-over-year rate of CPI inflation,” the firm wrote in a note Friday.
But, even if there was a surprise to the CPI data released Tuesday, the Fed isn’t likely to react strongly. “Any tariff-related increases will likely be written-off as transitory,” Credit Suisse said in a note Thursday. “A downside surprise should strengthen the views of Fed officials who see the need for more policy accommodation based on inflation softness alone.”
Meanwhile, turning to corporate earnings, cannabis company Tilray (TLRY) will report second-quarter results after the market close. The pot company is expected to report a loss of 26 cents per share on $40.3 million in revenue, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
After Tilray’s meteoric stock rise in 2018, shares have failed to impress investors this year. The stock is down 40% so far in 2019. Given rival Aurora Cannabis’ recently lowered revenue outlook following weaker-than-expected marijuana sales, Tilray’s report will be closely monitored to gauge the health of the retail cannabis sales both in Canada and in the U.S.
Tilray stock currently has five Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings and two Sell ratings. The options market is implying a 9.6% move in either direction following its report.
Heidi Chung is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @heidi_chung.
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