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Increasing losses over year doesn't faze Agrify (NASDAQ:AGFY) investors as stock rallies 23% this past week

Simply Wall St
·3 min read

It's nice to see the Agrify Corporation (NASDAQ:AGFY) share price up 23% in a week. But that hardly compensates for the shocking decline over the last twelve months. To wit, the stock has dropped 99% over the last year. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

While the stock has risen 23% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

See our latest analysis for Agrify

Because Agrify made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Agrify grew its revenue by 99% over the last year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price down 99% over twelve months. There's clearly something unusual going on here such as an acquisition that hasn't delivered expected profits. What is clear is that the market is not judging the company on its revenue growth right now. Of course, investors do over-react when they are stressed out, so the sell-off could be unjustifiably severe.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Agrify will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Agrify shareholders are down 99% for the year, even worse than the market loss of 21%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. With the stock down 89% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 6 warning signs we've spotted with Agrify (including 3 which are a bit concerning) .

Agrify is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Simply Wall St analyst Simply Wall St and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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