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Will Internation Business Drive Skechers' (SKX) Q3 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. SKX is slated to release third-quarter 2019 results on Oct 22. This renowned footwear designer, marketer and distributor delivered a positive earnings surprise of 48.5% in the last reported quarter. The company has an average positive earnings surprise of 24.6% for the trailing four quarters. Let’s see what’s in store for the company this time around.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings stands at 68 cents, indicating an improvement of roughly 17.2% from the year-ago quarter. We also note that the Zacks Consensus Estimate has remained unchanged in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1,336 million, suggesting growth of approximately 13.6% from the year-ago reported figure.

We note that total revenues of this California-based company increased 10.9% in the last reported quarter, while earnings grew more than 60%. Skechers guided third-quarter 2019 earnings per share in the range of 65-70 cents and net sales in the band of $1.325-$1.350 billion.

Factors at Play

Skechers’ enhanced focus on new lines of products, cost-containment efforts, inventory management and global distribution platform are likely to show on third-quarter results. Also, the company's domestic e-commerce business has been contributing to the company’s top line, a trend that has most likely continued in the quarter under review. The company operates e-commerce sites in Chile, Germany, U.K., Spain and Canada.

Certainly, Skechers’ international and direct-to-consumer businesses are primary catalysts. Europe and China are key markets for the company outside the United States. The company’s efforts to expand global reach in the footwear market through its distribution networks, subsidiaries and JVs are likely to have aided net sales in the quarter. In this regard, the joint venture in Mexico with its distribution partner is paying off well.

Management at its second-quarter earnings call guided mid-teen and high-single digit growth in international and direct-to-consumer businesses, respectively, for the balance of the year.

However, concerns related to higher general & administrative expenses and sluggish domestic wholesale business cannot be ignored. During the second quarter of 2019, the company’s domestic wholesale business slid 3.8%. However, we note that the rate of decline contracted from 10.9% witnessed in the preceding quarter. Management at its last earnings expressed anticipations of improvement in the back half of the year.

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively show a beat for Skechers this earnings season. The odds of a beat increase with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Although Skechers’ Zacks Rank #1 increases the chances of an earnings beat, its Earnings ESP of 0.00% makes surprise prediction difficult.

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