U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    3,269.96
    -40.15 (-1.21%)
     
  • Dow 30

    26,501.60
    -157.51 (-0.59%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    10,911.59
    -274.00 (-2.45%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    1,538.48
    -23.10 (-1.48%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    35.72
    -0.45 (-1.24%)
     
  • Gold

    1,878.80
    +10.80 (+0.58%)
     
  • Silver

    23.72
    +0.35 (+1.52%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1650
    -0.0029 (-0.24%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    0.8600
    +0.0250 (+2.99%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2951
    +0.0028 (+0.22%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    104.6200
    +0.0100 (+0.01%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    13,584.05
    +48.66 (+0.36%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    265.42
    +1.78 (+0.68%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    5,577.27
    -4.48 (-0.08%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    22,977.13
    -354.81 (-1.52%)
     

An Intrinsic Calculation For HomeServe plc (LON:HSV) Suggests It's 29% Undervalued

Simply Wall St
·6 mins read

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of HomeServe plc (LON:HSV) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for HomeServe

Is HomeServe fairly valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Levered FCF (£, Millions)

UK£101.4m

UK£143.0m

UK£169.4m

UK£178.3m

UK£184.5m

UK£189.2m

UK£192.9m

UK£195.9m

UK£198.3m

UK£200.3m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x1

Est @ 3.46%

Est @ 2.58%

Est @ 1.96%

Est @ 1.53%

Est @ 1.23%

Est @ 1.02%

Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 5.4%

UK£96.2

UK£129

UK£145

UK£145

UK£142

UK£138

UK£134

UK£129

UK£124

UK£119

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£1.3b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 0.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£200m× (1 + 0.5%) ÷ 5.4%– 0.5%) = UK£4.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£4.1b÷ ( 1 + 5.4%)10= UK£2.5b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£3.8b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£8.0, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 29% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

LSE:HSV Intrinsic value, March 20th 2020
LSE:HSV Intrinsic value, March 20th 2020

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HomeServe as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For HomeServe, We've compiled three further factors you should look at:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for HomeServe we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for HSV's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.