Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, LyondellBasell Industries fair value estimate is US$162
LyondellBasell Industries is estimated to be 38% undervalued based on current share price of US$99.67
The US$101 analyst price target for LYB is 37% less than our estimate of fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Is LyondellBasell Industries Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Est @ 2.06%
Est @ 2.08%
Est @ 2.10%
Est @ 2.12%
Est @ 2.13%
Est @ 2.13%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.8%
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$22b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.6b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.8%– 2.2%) = US$65b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$65b÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)10= US$31b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$52b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$99.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at LyondellBasell Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.125. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for LyondellBasell Industries
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Earnings declined over the past year.
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For LyondellBasell Industries, we've put together three essential items you should explore:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for LyondellBasell Industries that you should be aware of before investing here.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for LYB's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.