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We're definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. Anyone who held Arrow Minerals Limited (ASX:AMD) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 96% in that time. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 43%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 33% in the last three months.
We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
Arrow Minerals hasn't yet reported any revenue, so it's as much a business idea as an actual business. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). It seems likely some shareholders believe that Arrow Minerals will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Arrow Minerals has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.
When it reported in June 2019 Arrow Minerals had minimal cash in excess of all liabilities consider its expenditure: just AU$1.0m to be specific. So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. With that in mind, you can understand why the share price dropped 48% per year, over 5 years . The image below shows how Arrow Minerals's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image. The image below shows how Arrow Minerals's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? It would bother me, that's for sure. You can click here to see if there are insiders selling.
A Different Perspective
Arrow Minerals shareholders are down 43% for the year, but the market itself is up 22%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 47% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. Before spending more time on Arrow Minerals it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.