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Introducing CITIC (HKG:267), The Stock That Dropped 37% In The Last Five Years

Simply Wall St

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in CITIC Limited (HKG:267), since the last five years saw the share price fall 37%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 26% over the last twelve months. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 15% in the same period.

See our latest analysis for CITIC

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Looking back five years, both CITIC's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 2.1% per year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 8.9% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 4.63.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

SEHK:267 Past and Future Earnings March 26th 2020

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of CITIC, it has a TSR of -27% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that CITIC shareholders are down 23% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 17%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6.1% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - CITIC has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

We will like CITIC better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.