Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. Zooming in on an example, the Sinosoft Technology Group Limited (HKG:1297) share price dropped 64% in the last half decade. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 59% in the last year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 38% in thirty days. We do note, however, that the broader market is down 16% in that period, and this may have weighed on the share price.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
While the share price declined over five years, Sinosoft Technology Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 16% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
We don't think that the 2.0% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 17% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Sinosoft Technology Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Sinosoft Technology Group shareholders are down 59% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 21%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 18% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sinosoft Technology Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Sinosoft Technology Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.