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If You Invested $1000 in Hologic a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now

·4 min read

How much a stock's price changes over time is important for most investors, since price performance can both impact your investment portfolio and help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.

FOMO, or the fear of missing out, also plays a role in investing, particularly with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.

What if you'd invested in Hologic (HOLX) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to HOLX for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?

Hologic's Business In-Depth

With that in mind, let's take a look at Hologic's main business drivers.

Headquartered in Bedford, MA, Hologic Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics, medical imaging systems and surgical products which cater to the healthcare needs of women.

Hologic operates through the following four segments:

Diagnostics (63.6% of total revenues in FY21): With the Gen-Probe acquisition, Hologic currently offers APTIMA family of assays that includes the APTIMA Combo 2 assay, which feature the APTIMA CT and APTIMA GC assays, the APTIMA HPV assay and the APTIMA Trichomonas assay. Other products include the ThinPrep system, primarily used in cytology applications. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, this segment registered 6.2% growth year-over year.

Breast Health (25.4% of total revenues in FY21): Products include a broad portfolio of breast imaging and related products and accessories, including digital and film-based mammography systems, computer-aided detection (CAD), breast biopsy guidance systems, minimally invasive breast biopsy and tissue extraction devices and breast brachytherapy products. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, this segment registered 6.3% growth year-over year.

GYN Surgical (9.3% of total revenues in FY21): Products include the NovaSure endometrial ablation system – used in the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding and the MyoSure hysteroscopic tissue removal system – which allows incision less removal of fibroids and polyps within the uterus. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, this segment registered 6.6% growth year over year.

Skeletal Health (1.8% of total revenues in FY21): This segment includes dual-energy X-ray bone densitometry systems, an ultrasound-based osteoporosis assessment product, and Fluoroscan mini-C arm imaging products.

Bottom Line

Putting together a successful investment portfolio takes a combination of research, patience, and a little bit of risk. For Hologic, if you bought shares a decade ago, you're likely feeling really good about your investment today.

A $1000 investment made in May 2012 would be worth $4,644.56, or a 364.46% gain, as of May 23, 2022, according to our calculations. Investors should note that this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.

Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 201.21% and gold's return of 13.12% over the same time frame.

Going forward, analysts are expecting more upside for HOLX.

Hologic exited the second quarter of fiscal 2022 with better-than-expected results. The recently-completed buyout of Bolder Surgical along with the launch of the Panther Trax bodes well for the company. Further, the uptick in GYN Surgical business led by resilience from recently-launched products such as the fluent fluid management system is encouraging. Further, the company has raised its full-year 2022 guidance, which indicates the continuation of this bullish trend. Over the past six months, Hologic has outperformed its industry. However, the year-over-year decline in revenues driven by lower sales of COVID-19 assays compared to the prior-year period is discouraging. The decline in the Breast Heath segment due to semiconductor chip shortages is also discouraging. Rising costs and contraction of both margins are worrying.

The stock is up 5.17% over the past four weeks, and no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 6 higher, for fiscal 2022. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.
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