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First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC), operating in the financial services industry based in United States, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s examine First Bancorp’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
What's the opportunity in First Bancorp?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that First Bancorp’s ratio of 7.45x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 8.99x, which means if you buy First Bancorp today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe First Bancorp should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since First Bancorp’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of First Bancorp look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of First Bancorp, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Currently, FBNC appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on FBNC, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on FBNC for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on FBNC should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on First Bancorp. You can find everything you need to know about First Bancorp in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in First Bancorp, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.