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Investors in Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:AMBC) have unfortunately lost 37% over the last five years

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·3 min read
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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AMBC) share price has gained 25% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 37%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

Check out our latest analysis for Ambac Financial Group

Ambac Financial Group isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Over half a decade Ambac Financial Group reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 25% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 7% compound, over five years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. Risk averse investors probably wouldn't like this one much.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Ambac Financial Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Ambac Financial Group shareholders are down 33% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 20%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ambac Financial Group (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.