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Investors Who Bought ALLETE (NYSE:ALE) Shares A Year Ago Are Now Down 35%

Simply Wall St

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the ALLETE, Inc. (NYSE:ALE) share price is down 35% in the last year. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 5.9%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 26% in three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 32% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

See our latest analysis for ALLETE

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Unhappily, ALLETE had to report a 6.7% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 35% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NYSE:ALE Past and Future Earnings May 22nd 2020

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on ALLETE's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of ALLETE, it has a TSR of -32% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 5.9% in the last year, ALLETE shareholders lost 32% (even including dividends) . Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 4.9% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that ALLETE is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.