Investing in stocks comes with the risk that the share price will fall. Unfortunately, shareholders of Armour Energy Limited (ASX:AJQ) have suffered share price declines over the last year. The share price has slid 64% in that time. Notably, shareholders had a tough run over the longer term, too, with a drop of 61% in the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 44% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 23% in the same period.
Armour Energy isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Armour Energy grew its revenue by 3.8% over the last year. While that may seem decent it isn't great considering the company is still making a loss. It's likely this muted growth has contributed to the share price decline of 64% in the last year. We'd want to see evidence that future revenue growth will be stronger before getting too interested. Of course, the market can be too impatient at times. Why not take a closer look at this one so you're ready to pounce if growth does accelerate.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Armour Energy's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. We note that Armour Energy's TSR, at -64% is higher than its share price return of -64%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Armour Energy shareholders are down 64% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 11%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 6 warning signs for Armour Energy you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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