Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 287% in the last quarter. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 74%. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term.
Diebold Nixdorf isn’t currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last half decade, Diebold Nixdorf saw its revenue increase by 15% per year. That’s a fairly respectable growth rate. So the stock price fall of 23% per year seems pretty steep. The market can be a harsh master when your company is losing money and revenue growth disappoints.
The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Diebold Nixdorf will earn in the future (free profit forecasts)
A Dividend Lost
The share price return figures discussed above don’t include the value of dividends paid previously, but the total shareholder return (TSR) does. Many would argue the TSR gives a more complete picture of the value a stock brings to its holders. Over the last 5 years, Diebold Nixdorf generated a TSR of -70%, which is, of course, better than the share price return. Although the company had to cut dividends, it has paid cash to shareholders in the past.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 3.1% in the last year, Diebold Nixdorf shareholders lost 39%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 22% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Diebold Nixdorf by clicking this link.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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