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If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But long term Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:DVAX) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Sadly for them, the share price is down 66% in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 60% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 25% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
Dynavax Technologies isn't a profitable company, so it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over the last three years, Dynavax Technologies's revenue dropped 15% per year. That means its revenue trend is very weak compared to other loss making companies. With no profits and falling revenue it is no surprise that investors have been dumping the stock, pushing the price down by 30% per year over that time. Bagholders or 'baggies' are people who buy more of a stock as the price collapses. They are then left 'holding the bag' if the shares turn out to be worthless. After losing money on a declining business with falling stock price, we always consider whether eager bagholders are still offering us a reasonable exit price.
The graphic below shows how revenue and earnings have changed as management guided the business forward. If you want to see cashflow, you can click on the chart.
If you are thinking of buying or selling Dynavax Technologies stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Dynavax Technologies had a tough year, with a total loss of 60%, against a market gain of about 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 14% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before spending more time on Dynavax Technologies it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
We will like Dynavax Technologies better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.