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We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. Zooming in on an example, the Xcel Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:XELB) share price dropped 69% in the last half decade. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 32% over the last twelve months. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 12%. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Xcel Brands moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 11% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Xcel Brands has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Xcel Brands in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Xcel Brands had a tough year, with a total loss of 32%, against a market gain of about 15%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 21% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before spending more time on Xcel Brands it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
But note: Xcel Brands may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.