U.S. Markets closed
  • S&P 500

    4,704.54
    +15.87 (+0.34%)
     
  • Dow 30

    35,870.95
    -60.10 (-0.17%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    15,993.71
    +72.14 (+0.45%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    2,363.59
    -13.42 (-0.56%)
     
  • Gold

    1,861.20
    -0.20 (-0.01%)
     
  • Silver

    24.88
    -0.02 (-0.08%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1369
    -0.0006 (-0.0568%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.5890
    -0.0150 (-0.94%)
     
  • Vix

    17.59
    +0.48 (+2.81%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3497
    -0.0003 (-0.0216%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    114.3040
    +0.0520 (+0.0455%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    54,305.48
    -596.49 (-1.09%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,402.14
    -65.80 (-4.48%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,255.96
    -35.24 (-0.48%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    29,683.09
    +84.43 (+0.29%)
     

How Investors Can Grab Better Returns for Transportation Using the Zacks ESP Screener

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·3 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.09 a share, just 13 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 20, 2021.

By taking the percentage difference between the $1.09 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.07 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings has an Earnings ESP of 2.31%. Investors should also know that KNX is just one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. All of these qualifying stocks can be filtered by ESP, Zacks Rank, % Surprise (Last Qtr.), and Reporting date.

Using the Zacks Earnings ESP to your advantage is just the start. Make sure to check out the Earnings ESP Home Page for even more earnings-related tips and tricks to design a winning investment portfolio.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
KnightSwift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.