When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 25% over five years, which is below the market return. The last year hasn't been great either, with the stock up just 2.2%.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Janus Henderson Group's earnings per share are down 15% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. The falling EPS doesn't correlate with the climbing share price, so it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
We note that the dividend is higher than it was previously - always nice to see. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Janus Henderson Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Janus Henderson Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Janus Henderson Group, it has a TSR of 66% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Janus Henderson Group shareholders are up 8.4% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 11% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Janus Henderson Group (1 can't be ignored) that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.