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Investors in SomnoMed (ASX:SOM) have unfortunately lost 64% over the last five years

·3 min read

We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But unfortunately, some companies simply don't succeed. Zooming in on an example, the SomnoMed Limited (ASX:SOM) share price dropped 69% in the last half decade. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 48% in the last year. On top of that, the share price is down 9.1% in the last week.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

Check out our latest analysis for SomnoMed

Given that SomnoMed didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Over five years, SomnoMed grew its revenue at 6.1% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. The share price return isn't so respectable with an annual loss of 11% over the period. That suggests the market is disappointed with the current growth rate. That could lead to an opportunity if the company is going to become profitable sooner rather than later.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).


We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered SomnoMed's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. SomnoMed hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -64% exceeds its share price return of -69%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 2.1% in the twelve months, SomnoMed shareholders did even worse, losing 48%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand SomnoMed better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for SomnoMed you should know about.

SomnoMed is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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