Investors Are Undervaluing Axway Software SA (EPA:AXW) By 28.5%
I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Axway Software SA (EPA:AXW) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. I will use the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not November 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Axway Software by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for Axway Software
The calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow forecast
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF (€, Millions) | €19.89 | €25.87 | €27.27 | €28.74 | €30.29 |
Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 5.39% | Est @ 5.39% | Est @ 5.39% |
Present Value Discounted @ 8.16% | €18.39 | €22.12 | €21.55 | €21.00 | €20.47 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €104m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (0.8%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €30m × (1 + 0.8%) ÷ (8.2% – 0.8%) = €414m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = €414m ÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)5 = €280m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is €383m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of €18.07. Compared to the current share price of €12.92, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 29% discount to what it is available for right now.
Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Axway Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For AXW, I’ve compiled three essential factors you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does AXW have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does AXW’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of AXW? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the EPA every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
