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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$33.90||$82.28||$248.73||$87.49||$177.68||$189.16||$198.81||$207.08||$214.31||$220.80|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x4||Analyst x5||Analyst x3||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 6.46%||Est @ 5.1%||Est @ 4.16%||Est @ 3.49%||Est @ 3.03%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3%||$31.30||$70.15||$195.81||$63.59||$119.26||$117.23||$113.77||$109.41||$104.56||$99.47|
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $1.02b
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$221m × (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (8.3% – 1.9%) = US$3.5b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$3.5b ÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10 = $1.60b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $2.62b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate in the company’s reported currency of $8.96. However, CG’s primary listing is in Canada, and 1 share of CG in USD represents 1.326 ( USD/ CAD) share of TSX:CG, so the intrinsic value per share in CAD is CA$11.88. Relative to the current share price of CA$8.09, the company appears quite undervalued at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Centerra Gold as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.066. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Centerra Gold, There are three additional factors you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does CG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does CG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of CG? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.