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Investors Are Undervaluing Gr. Sarantis S.A. (ATH:SAR) By 47.46%

Sadie Atkinson

Today I will be providing a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Gr. Sarantis S.A. (ATH:SAR) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not January 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Gr. Sarantis by following the link below.

See our latest analysis for Gr. Sarantis

What’s the value?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.

5-year cash flow estimate

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Levered FCF (€, Millions) €26.10 €37.55 €34.45 €44.30 €48.46
Source Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 9.39%
Present Value Discounted @ 8.87% €23.97 €31.68 €26.70 €31.53 €31.68

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €146m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (4.3%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.9%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €48m × (1 + 4.3%) ÷ (8.9% – 4.3%) = €1.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = €1.1b ÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)5 = €731m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is €877m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of €13.06. Relative to the current share price of €6.86, the stock is quite undervalued at a 47% discount to what it is available for right now.

ATSE:SAR Intrinsic Value Export January 7th 19

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Gr. Sarantis as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For SAR, there are three essential aspects you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does SAR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does SAR’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of SAR? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every GR stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.