Investors Are Undervaluing Hugo Boss AG (FRA:BOSS) By 33%
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Hugo Boss AG (DB:BOSS) using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. If you want to learn more about this method, the basis for my calculations can be found in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in May 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for Hugo Boss here.
What’s the value?
I’ve used the 2-stage growth model, which takes into account the initial higher growth stage of a company’s life cycle and the steadier growth phase over the long run. Firstly, I use the analyst consensus forecast of BOSS’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these figures at the rate of 4.17%. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of €1.16B. Want to understand how I calculated this value? Take a look at our detailed analysis here.
The graph above shows how BOSS’s top and bottom lines are expected to move going forward, which should give you some color on BOSS’s outlook. Secondly, I determine the terminal value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. I’ve decided to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the stable growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. The present value of the terminal value after discounting it back five years is €6.77B.
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €7.94B. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of €114.99, which, compared to the current share price of €76.84, we find that Hugo Boss is quite undervalued at a 33.18% discount to what it is available for right now.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For BOSS, I’ve compiled three pertinent aspects you should further research:
Financial Health: Does BOSS have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does BOSS’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of BOSS? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every DE stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
