Investors Are Undervaluing Universal Forest Products Inc (NASDAQ:UFPI) By 25%
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Universal Forest Products Inc (NASDAQ:UFPI) using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. If you want to learn more about this method, the basis for my calculations can be found in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in March 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for Universal Forest Products here.
Crunching the numbers
I use what is known as the 2-stage model, which takes into account the initial higher growth stage of a company’s life cycle and the steadier growth phase over the long run. To begin, I pulled together the analyst consensus estimates of UFPI’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these figures at the rate of 8.58%. When estimates weren’t available, I’ve extrapolated the average annual growth rate over the previous five years, capped at a reasonable level. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of US$597.88M. Keen to understand how I arrived at this number? Check out our detailed analysis here.
The graph above shows how UFPI’s top and bottom lines are expected to move going forward, which should give you an idea of UFPI’s outlook. Then, I calculate the terminal value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. I’ve decided to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the stable growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. After discounting the terminal value back five years, the present value becomes US$2.15B.
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$2.74B. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of $44.83, which, compared to the current share price of $33.63, we see that Universal Forest Products is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 24.99% discount to what it is available for right now.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For UFPI, there are three fundamental factors you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does UFPI have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does UFPI’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of UFPI? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NASDAQ every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
