Investors in Vistra (NYSE:VST) have made a decent return of 52% over the past five years
When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 39% over five years, which is below the market return. On a brighter note, more newer shareholders are probably rather content with the 32% share price gain over twelve months.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Vistra
Given that Vistra didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
For the last half decade, Vistra can boast revenue growth at a rate of 18% per year. Even measured against other revenue-focussed companies, that's a good result. It's nice to see shareholders have made a profit, but the gain of 7% over the period isn't that impressive compared to the overall market. You could argue the market is still pretty skeptical, given the growing revenues. It could be that the stock was previously over-priced - but if you're looking for underappreciated growth stocks, these numbers indicate that there might be an opportunity here.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Vistra in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Vistra, it has a TSR of 52% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Vistra shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 36% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 9%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Vistra (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Vistra is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
