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The iPhone5 Still the De Facto Winner

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You can read all about the Nokia NOK and the Motorola phones and think that maybe these are, at last, the Apple AAPL rivals that people want.

To me, that means that the Nokia and Motorola supporters are dismissing two key points:

  1. The youthful demographic likes the Apple ecosystem. They want their music on their phone. They want all things Apple because they like the look and feel of what Steve Jobs created.

  2. The big telcos have to get behind Apple, not Motorola and Nokia, because otherwise customers will switch to Sprint S , which is coming on strong with the heavily-subsidized Apple offerings. Sprint is the third player that neither Verizon VZ nor AT&T T thought could still be a third player -- and it is doing so with Apple.

No kidding that the prospect of the new iPhone5 is freezing the old 4S. We know that the hole in the release that could end in September will define Apple's fourth quarter.

But more important, the Nokia and Motorola offerings don't seem to have anything that is SO fabulous that you want to go with theirs and not Apple.

Nokia's being downgraded all over the place because Windows 8 doesn't'seem to be grabbing people. Motorola? After the Verizon/ATT/Sprint subsidy Motorola's just not good enough to switch.

It's not game-set-match Apple because people like the Google GOOG operating system too, and, of course, Google is Motorola.

But Apple's iPhone5 is the de facto winner simply because these new competitive iterations don't have anything on the Apple 4S and that's the OLD Apple phone.