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iQiyi Stock Is Really Not the Next Netflix

Chris Tyler

Most investors would love to have the next Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in their portfolio. But make no mistake, buying iQiyi (NASDAQ:IQ) stock is not the way to enjoy that kind of storied investment.

Why iQiyi Stock Will Likely Stay Range-bound in October

Source: Faizal Ramli / Shutterstock.com

Over the last decade — and despite a more drawn out correction over the past year — shares of NFLX stock have returned more than 5,000% to its long-term investors. At its best, a gain in excess of 10,000% was staring some shareholders squarely in the face. I wish I had that foresight while browsing the aisles of Blockbuster. But I’m here to plea investors to let bygones be bygones. Don’t think buying IQ stock simply because it’s hailed as China’s Netflix is going to fix anything.

To be certain, some investors will argue that while iQiyi has been likened to Netflix, its business model also includes platforms similar to Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) YouTube and privately held Twitch. And I get it, that pitch sounds even more compelling. But more importantly, IQ stock faces an uphill battle off and on the price chart.

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Chinese Stocks and a Rough 2019

The past year of course hasn’t just been painful for IQ stock. More than a few Chinese stocks like Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Tencent (OTCMKTS:TCEHY) can blame the trade war with the United States as being in large part responsible for their underperformance since 2018. But iQiyi has much deeper issues.

As original content costs skyrocket, the increasingly expensive streaming market will continue to become more challenging for iQiyi stock. It’s a trend which shouldn’t be dismissed. And with the company nowhere close to turning a profit — and going through cash like water trying to make a name for itself — that point is all the more important. And by the way, Alibaba and Tencent? Those two tech titans also happen to be very well-capitalized threats to IQ’s success.

Sure, bulls could try to look at IQ’s impressive subscriber data and believe with roughly 93% of China’s 1.4 billion population still untapped, that there’s only upside for iQiyi stock price. But as InvestorPlace’s Josh Enomoto eloquently discusses, it’s simply not that easy.

Then there’s IQ stock’s price chart. From a quick glance, it’s easy enough to hope for a bullish resolution. But again, if the story looks to good to be true, watch out below.

IQ Stock Weekly Chart

It’s not fun being the bearer of bad news, but I take the responsibility seriously. It would be very easy to be bullishly appreciative of a potential triple bottom taking shape on the weekly price chart with iQiyi stock. With last week’s hammer candlestick, a rally above $16.94 would confirm the pattern. You’ll get no argument there. It is what it is.

Still, a break of technical support could get even uglier for IQ stock as new lows are made. And this isn’t only because iQiyi’s stochastics are failing to hint at a bottom or that broken patterns can be powerful motivators — especially large ones like IQ’s.

IQ stock, plain and simple, is highly speculative. And where the rubber meets the road, bottoming formations of this type should be reserved for stocks which have the backing of stronger fundamentals that support longevity or aren’t already showing signs of stagnating growth. Again, thanks Josh.

Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. . For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.

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