A heavy macro week got off to a rather aggressive start this morning. Consumer spending hit the tape at much better than expected levels. Core PCE price inflation and personal Income both met consensus view. The Case-Shiller HPI was a positive, yet consumer confidence—like Consumer Sentiment last week—missed expectations for May, despite that beefed-up spending for April. Hmmmmm.
As far as trading volume goes, I thought we might run into a quiet session after I emailed my morning note, which was responded to by a plethora of vacation messages. To this point in the day, that is exactly what we have seen.
1) The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trading level here is a very even 2100. After finding initial support, the index has now found resistance in that very spot after a mid-morning sell-off. There is a traffic jam of nearby support levels should the market show weakness later in the day. The 2092 and 2086 levels both show up on my charts. To the upside, I see nothing between 2100 and 2111.
2) Small caps (^RUT) and the transports are your early leaders, while consumer staples (XLP) lag the pack. WTI Crude is re-approaching the $50 mark and that has energy (XLE) names on the plus side. The leadership of the financial (XLF) and technology (XLK) sectors seem to be taking a breather.
3) As for perceived safety plays, the VIX (^VIX) is very strong today (out of proportion with its peers and also to the red arrows that we see), but it does stand alone at this time. Gold, U.S. Treasurys, and the utility (XLU) sector are all sort of flat-ish.
4) Is it time to cash in on the tech trade? I'll tell you this: I'm not sure, but the trade has certainly worked like a charm. If you're just in this for a trade, then your targets have already been reached.
5) Health food for lunch again. You can do this.