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Jaguar Health Inc (NASDAQ:JAGX): Does The Earnings Decline Make It An Underperformer?

Rowena Monahan

After looking at Jaguar Health Inc’s (NASDAQ:JAGX) latest earnings announcement (31 December 2017), I found it useful to revisit the company’s performance in the past couple of years and assess this against the most recent figures. As a long term investor, I pay close attention to earnings trend, rather than the figures published at one point in time. I also compare against an industry benchmark to check whether Jaguar Health’s performance has been impacted by industry movements. In this article I briefly touch on my key findings. See our latest analysis for Jaguar Health

Did JAGX perform worse than its track record and industry?

For the most up-to-date info, I use data from the most recent 12 months, which annualizes the most recent half-year data, or in some cases, the latest annual report is already the most recent financial year data. This enables me to examine many different companies on a similar basis, using the latest information. For Jaguar Health, its most recent bottom-line (trailing twelve month) is -US$21.97M, which, against last year’s level, has become more negative. Given that these values may be somewhat short-term thinking, I have estimated an annualized five-year figure for JAGX’s net income, which stands at -US$13.77M. This doesn’t seem to paint a better picture, as earnings seem to have steadily been getting more and more negative over time.

NasdaqCM:JAGX Income Statement May 15th 18

We can further examine Jaguar Health’s loss by looking at what the industry has been experiencing over the past few years. Each year, for the past five years Jaguar Health’s top-line has risen by 99.25% on average, indicating that the company is in a high-growth period with expenses racing ahead revenues, leading to annual losses. Inspecting growth from a sector-level, the US pharmaceuticals industry has been growing its average earnings by double-digit 11.56% in the previous year, and a more subdued 9.52% over the previous five years. This means whatever tailwind the industry is deriving benefit from, Jaguar Health has not been able to realize the gains unlike its average peer.

What does this mean?

Jaguar Health’s track record can be a valuable insight into its earnings performance, but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. Companies that incur net loss is always hard to envisage what will happen in the future and when. The most insightful step is to assess company-specific issues Jaguar Health may be facing and whether management guidance has dependably been met in the past. I recommend you continue to research Jaguar Health to get a better picture of the stock by looking at:

  1. Financial Health: Is JAGX’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
  2. Valuation: What is JAGX worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether JAGX is currently mispriced by the market.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the trailing twelve months from 31 December 2017. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.